Some of you may have noticed quite a few articles popping up here and there about the possibility of China going to war with multiple nations, most notably the USA and Taiwan. There are many reasons why China would be willing to go to war, and many possible outcomes, some of which I will touch on in this article.
As many know, China has considered Taiwan to be a part of its nation and not an independent nation (and therefore under its control) since Taiwan first came into being. This, of course, is something Taiwan vehemently disagrees with. Taiwan is, and considers itself to be, an independent democratic nation.
This begs the question of whether under the leadership of Xi Jinping China will try to limit the conflict to Taiwan and its surrounding waters, or will they embark on a conflict involving other nations as well, such as the USA, Japan,etc.? That remains to be seen.
The attempted conquest of Taiwan offers a second consideration: its geographic location. If China had Taiwan in its possession, its rapidly expanding fleet would have a much greater ability to project its power and threaten Japan, the US and other nations.
Therefore, there are plenty of reasons for the CCP to attempt to conquer Taiwan. Additionally, the US and China are gearing to clash in the realm of finances, and perhaps the physical realm too. This war could have massive, far-reaching and far-ranging effects on the economies of both countries. It could also have major ramifications on the future of the global economic order.
China produces what comes to about 80% of the drugs consumed by the USA and Europe, leaving the USA and Europe quite vulnerable to a sworn enemy. Quite frankly, the results of this issue alone would be absolutely devastating, because so many people in both these regions are on medications to either stay alive or stay sane. This would have wide-ranging ramifications in and of itself.
Another worrying fact is that the US is in tremendous amounts of debt. A good chunk of it is owed one way or another to China. If China decides it wishes to regain some of the wealth it has yet to regain from the USA, it could very well decide it will physically invade the USA.
If the USA defaults on their dollar and China has a financial implosion, while it isn’t a direct physical war, it will instantly become one for the following reasons.
China has only a 5 day oil supply, and the sinking of the tankers coming to deliver oil to China would totally paralyse China and make it defenseless, so China would feel forced to react instantly; about 60% of China’s internal commercial bonds are backed by US T-Bills and if those T-Bills lose all value, that would destroy about 60% of the loans in China, as well as tank the GDP of China; a default of the US dollar would also destroy the largest customers of Chinese goods: the USA, the British pound and economy would crash, and the European Union and the Euro would crash. I think we can all figure out what that means for the world: another Great Depression.
China itself is losing many companies listed on the stock exchange to collapse. This could very well have huge marked implications, and drive it to attempt to regain some of its lost wealth in other ways.
Turning back to Taiwan, many analysts believe China would only seek to attack only Taiwan during an effort to seize the island. This makes the assumption that China believes it could successfully deter the USA and Japan from coming to Taiwan’s aid. Deterrence can’t be ensured, so China will likely have to assume that both the USA and Japan will act to prevent the conquest of Taiwan.
Taiwan has tremendous value in the international community. If Taiwan suffers militarily the whole world will feel the impact. Also, the USA’s ginormous loss of face in Afghanistan and the perception that President Joe Biden’s decision-making abilities are in serious doubt could lead to China deciding to make a move sooner rather than later. If so, it should come as no surprise if China conducts an aggressive surprise first strike, hitting Taiwan, Japan, and the USA simultaneously.
Consequently, I think it is safe to say that there is a strong possibility that China, Taiwan and others could be going to war in the not-so-distant future, with terrible possible consequences. Hopefully not, but with the way things are, I believe it’s a strong possibility and should prepare ourselves for the consequences.
Katelin Staples is from Gladstone, Queensland. By day Katelin is employed as a proofreader. Katelin has a passion for discovering the deep things of God and how they affect the world around us.