For anyone who needed to spend a bit more time with the employment data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday, it might be worth noting that a 2014 independent technical evaluation of the ABS' data collection methods resulted in 16 recommendations regarding both accuracy and volatility of seasonally adjusted data.
However, even though the ABS accepted all 16 recommendations from the review, it did not explain the impact upon the methodology it used for November's data; fortunately for lay readers, data experts and economic analysts assisted the media with the delivery of clear interpretations.
Of particular importance in the November announcement is the measurement of "participation rate", which quantifies the proportion of working-age people either working, trying to find work, or ready to start work. The participation rate is of significance because, even though Australian employers increased the number of available jobs by the largest amount in two years, the rate offset this gain—people out of work who were previously not documented due to their lack of participation became visible to the ABS. Consequently, the unemployment rate rose to a level that has not been seen since September 2002.
Over November, 40,800 part-time jobs and 1,800 full-time jobs were added to the economy (seasonally adjusted), while 42,700 additional people were employed, which is the biggest increase since March 2012. Meanwhile, the participation rate rose from 64.6 per cent in October to 64.7 per cent. The number of unemployed Australians slightly increased to generate a total figure of 777,000.
New South Wales (NSW) added the highest number of jobs, with 19,600, bringing the state total for the last six months to 35,700 jobs. Victoria was the second-highest state after NSW, with 10,800 jobs added, but was also the state with the highest percentage of jobless people above Queensland, with an unchanged rate of 6.8 per cent.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) economist Savanth Sebastian was pleased at the results of an industry emphasis away from mining toward housing construction. The data from the mining state of Queensland backed up Mr Sebastian's statement to the media, as the state registered the second-highest unemployment rate, 6.9 per cent, and 30,500 lost jobs.
Commonwealth Bank senior economist Michael Workman described the rise in the unemployment rate as modest, while BT's chief economist, Chris Caton, was also unperturbed by the shift from 6.2 to 6.3 per cent. Caton said to ABC News that "that there is no evidence in today's [Thursday's] data that it [unemployment rate] is still going up." The news did not surprise the broader sector, as a Bloomberg survey conducted before the start of business on Thursday revealed that 26 out of 27 economists expected a rise, and the average estimate was 6.3 per cent.
Other notable findings from November's employment data are:
- Consumer confidence was at an all-time low since August 2011.
- Business sentiment was at a 16-month low.
- With a rate of 0.3 percent over the last quarter, the economy progressed at the slowest pace in the previous 18 months.