Round 14 in the AFL just finished. With fourteen rounds to go the finals are not far away. Why not rate the eighteen teams and their best and worst possible ends to the season.
Port Adelaide
The Power have a ten game winning streak, Connor Rozee in Brownlow contention, and the top spot by round 14. Only the most horrific run of injury and form will see them drop out of finals contention.
Best possible result: Two home finals and a Premiership
Worst possible result: Make finals, Out in the first or second week.
Collingwood
The Pies had a rare loss recently and should come back from their weeks rest with enough left in the tank to hold their top four position. Injury and suspension are the limiters for Collingwood. With Adelaide, Port, Brisbane and Essendon the only teams in the top eight left to play finals look assured.
Best possible result: Premiership
Worst possible result: Loosing a Grand Final (Collywobbles)
Melbourne
Nine wins and four losses sees the Dees in a comfortable place in the top eight. Not exactly the Premiership team of 2021, but strong enough that you cannot see them miss finals this year. Injuries and selection issues are a factor but if the forward line clicks in time they could win it all over again.
Best possible result: Premiership
Worst possible result: out in first week of finals
Brisbane
Despite some canny recruiting they still look less than Grand Final contenders. With five games out of eight in Queensland it favours them to stay in the top four. But it is plausible that they could drop one or two of the away games. Melbourne at the MCG in round 18 and Collingwood at Marvel in round 23 pose as the big hurdles to prove their spot at the top.
Best possible result: Grand Final appearance
Worst possible result: Loosing another home final
St. Kilda
Coach Ross Lyon is a tournament specialist. He has history forging clubs into defensive units that restrict the opposition. With the forward power available at the Saints they should be in the finals. However this is St. Kilda and historically they do find a way to loose despite their best intentions. Out of the blocks early, wins in the bank. Should get to the finals.
Best possible result: Qualifying Final
Worst possible result: Not making finals
Essendon
Like St. Kilda in a better position that anyone, except die hard fans expected. Said to be the easiest draw for 2023 but you still have to win enough games to make it. Port at the MCG in round 16 and Geelong at GMHBA in round 18 look tough, so does GWS at GIANTS Stadium in round 23. Have to just keep winning to be assured of finals football this year.
Best possible result: Qualifying finals
Worst possible result: Tenth place or lower
Western Bulldogs
Eight wins and Six losses. Not great but good enough to still be in the top eight. Bontempelli, Treloar, Liberatore and company should be enough. Their forward line is still not settled which should be set before round 18. Certainly enough talent to make finals and a favourable enough draw to make it happen.
Best possible result: Grand Final appearance
Worst possible result: Missing finals altogether
Adelaide
The Crows are an emerging side. At their best they look finals bound. However shaky on the road form has cost them. Collingwood at the MCG in round 16 will test the Crows resolve. So will games against Essendon at Marvel in round 16 and Melbourne at the MCG in round 19. Still with games against Port, Brisbane and Sydney after this. A good string of wins will be hard to accomplish as the finals draw near.
Best possible finish: Beat Port and make the finals
Worst possible finish: Loose to Port and finish 12 or lower
Richmond
The Tigers have turned a corner. New head coach, new lease on life. They are close to the same form of chaos ball that won them premierships. If this continues they will make finals. Once there anything is possible with an experienced group who can smell another Grand Final appearance. Must win six or more games to be assured of finals. Mathematical chances are rarely kind to Richmond.
Best possible finish: Grand final
Worst possible finish: Ninth
Geelong
Sleeping cats are old and not the Premiership team of the year before. Six wins and Seven losses does not flatter and only invites terms like “Premiership hangover” and the like. Melbourne at GMHBA in round 15 will be a challenge, which is saying a lot about where Geelong are this year. Essendon, Port, Brisbane, Collingwood, St. Kilda and Bulldogs to come. At least three of these have to be wins otherwise no finals for Geelong this season.
Best possible finish: Make finals
Worst possible finish: Twelve or lower
GWS
Five wins and Five losses with a two game winning streak the Giants look to have turned a corner. Perhaps a late run will see them make the finals. Injuries will count as will suspensions, they need their best on the park every match. Away games to Melbourne, Adelaide, Bulldogs and Port are the danger. Win two of those and beat Hawthorn, Gold Coast, Sydney and Essendon and its a chance at finals, but its just a chance.
Best possible finish: Finals, mathematically
Worst possible finish: Fifteenth or lower
Gold Coast
Darwin is a happy hunting ground for the Suns. The MCG is not. After being thumped by Carlton they need to regroup and fast. Six wins and Seven Losses is not bad but not good enough. Collingwood, Port, Brisbane, and Adelaide to come. So are GWS, Sydney and St. Kilda. If they do not regroup this could be a hard end of the season for the Suns. Passengers need not apply. To get a chance of finals they need to be committed to the plan and play hard contested football.
Best possible finish: Finals
Worst possible finish: Bottom Four
Fremantle
Looking like they turned the corner before the bye, Fremantle have crashed, loosing two in row. The ship needs to be righted. A young forward line needs support and a decent amount of ball to feed them. Loosing fist Ruck Sean D’Arcy are big shoes to fill. Players need to decide if they really want to be competitive and make finals again or win an easy second derby and peace out.
Best possible finish: Finals
Worst possible finish: Bottom four
Carlton
Flat track bullies. Easy wins aside against Gold Coast and West Coast there is nothing but confusion and trouble. When you watch them play well they look great. But that has only happened a few times this year. Unsure what is wrong. Could be too many leaders on the field or poor communication from the coaching group. Need to get on a miraculous winning streak to make finals.
Best possible finish: Ninth
Worst possible finish: Level with or below North Melbourne
Sydney
Another Grand Finalist from last year who is struggling. Some games the players light up the field, others the power is out. Swans are staring down a year with no finals. It is not impossible to make the finals from here, but when the fans start saying its Mathematically possible its not looking good. Despite some good recruiting, its the same players being relied upon. Change is coming.
Best possible finish: Ninth
Worst possible finish: Below Hawthorn, Geelong and GWS
Hawthorn
Doing the best with what they have got. Improving every week. Picking up wins you did not expect them to get. Slowly but surely the Hawks are getting back to where the want to be. Tom Mitchell is testing the kids, moving players on, recruiting what he needs. The plan is slowly starting to show itself. They wont make finals but they will make a few teams sorry they took them for granted on the way out.
Best possible finish: Tenth
Worst possible finish: Wooden spoon
North Melbourne
Only one other team has had a worse case scenario than the Kangaroos. Injury, coaching problems, a few close losses. Recruiting has unearthed talent and its good. There is enough there for the fans to see that improvement is coming. Close games against Fremantle, Hawthorn, Essendon and Sydney turned into wins could have seen a different season.
Best possible finish: Fourteenth
Worst possible finish: Wooden spoon
West Coast
Fans are tearing up their memberships and calling for the coach to be sacked. Injuries to key players are obvious. However the cupboard is not bare. Players have been found like young Gibney. Allen has stepped up too. The question for the coaching team is wether to go hard reset like Hawthorn or wait to see if ageing bodies can fly again. How daring is Simpson and his team? We will find out.
Best possible finish: Seventeenth
Worst possible finish: Coach sacked before round 18