AFL Round 20 just finished, only three rounds remain till finals. After the weekends upsets and incredibly close finishes the top teams have been reshuffled. Geelong and Melbourne sit atop as before. However, the rest of the ladder is a game of snakes and ladders.
The AFL Ladder looks as follows
1.Geelong 60
2.Melbourne 56
3.Collingwood 56
4.Sydney 52
5.Brisbane 52
6.Fremantle 50
7.Carlton 48
8.St. Kilda 44
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9.Richmond 42
10.Western Bulldogs 40
11.Gold Coast 36
The Ladders
The team on the biggest ladder is Collingwood. Ten wins in a row, equal with Geelong. Winning when no one though they could. In most games coming from behind and wining by a goal or less. They surely know how to play their game.
Over the next three rounds Collingwood play Melbourne, Sydney (in Sydney) and Carlton. Every game is a final for Collingwood. At worst, they only beat Carlton. Yet 2022 Collingwood has found the will to win. Especially when you thought they could not. And honestly, that is the way the Collingwood fans like it.
Sydney is looking prepared and ready for finals. Like many observers of the game I will repeat the mantra “you cannot discount Sydney”. They prepare and teach the game plan superbly and they are able to adjust to plan B, C, D and E when they have to.
Clinically Sydney dissected Fremantle announcing that they were capable of more than we thought of them. The test of their mettle will be when they play Collingwood at home in round 22. Can the Sydney structure and planning beat the Collingwood will to win? It will be hard to tip a winner.
The Snakes
Brisbane loosing to Richmond in such an ungainly fashion was tragic. Leading at half time 72 to 40 it looked like Richmonds season was over. Richmond were the only ones who did not believe that. Richmond kicked ten goals to three in the second half to win by seven points.
Not so long ago Brisbane at Home, lost to Richmond in a Grand Final. Those scars must be very real right now. With games against Carlton, St. Kilda and Melbourne to come they could drop lower. The talent is there at Brisbane, but is the will strive strong enough?
Fremantle have been found out. A season of promise appears to be fading. The return of Fyfe was not a triumph. Fremantle have bested Melbourne and Geelong. However, Sydney destroyed their game plan. There has been adjustments but no plan B has been seen.
Fremantle play Western Bulldogs, West Coast and GWS. If they regain their composure you could see them win two games. Teams above Fremantle are more flexible and battle hardened due to finals experience. Flagmantle is a promise that has not fully dawned.
Carlton loosing to Adelaide was not to the script. This was a remarkable year of improvement and still looks to be finals bound. Wins to Sydney and Collingwood pushed them down. Wins by St Kilda and Richmond threaten their finals dream.
Has the effort started to effect performance? Carlton play Brisbane (in Brisbane), Melbourne and Collingwood. Every game is a final now. Expectation is always high at Carlton, this year has been beyond where most even dreamed. Loosing out so close to finals will hurt if it happens.
Western Bulldogs came off the high of beating Melbourne to fall to Geelong by 28 points. Wins by Richmond and St. Kilda compacted this loss. Now outside the eight they have an interesting run to the finals. Fremantle, GWS and Hawthorn (in Launceston).
Win all three and finals are likely. Loose one and their path to finals is no longer theirs to command. Fremantle are the only team they play in finals contention but, do not take the other two lightly. Hawthorn do not like loosing in Launceston. 2022 is not over for the Bulldogs but it hangs by a thread.
Other Contenders
This time of the year you hear the words “mathematically possible”. Gold Cost’s seven point win over a fast finishing West Coast earned them place of being mathematically possible for finals. Gold Coast are now a well rounded AFL team. Able to compete across the ground. But finals?
It never hurts to dream, in fact it can be very healthy. For Gold Coast fans, it has been a great year. Gold Coast play Hawthorn, Geelong (on the Gold Coast) and North Melbourne. Possibly two wins. Which gives them a mathematical chance.
St. Kilda at the end of Round 20 are in the eight, two points ahead of Richmond. St. Kilda have been up and down all season. Never really looking like a contender but doing enough to get this close to the finals.
With Geelong in Geelong, Brisbane and Sydney it will be tough. It is hard to see a win for St. Kilda. Maybe Brisbane will be vulnerable? They could jump a team who takes them for granted. Not enough wins earlier in the season is the flaw for St. Kilda. Possible but not looking plausible.
Richmond have been to the top. Three time Premiership winners with most of that team still playing. It showed in their win against Brisbane. Richmond have been their own worst enemy in recent rounds. Tripping up at the final hurdle on multiple occasions by finding ways to loose.
Have Richmond finally turned the corner? Richmond’s remaining games against Port Adelaide, Hawthorn and Essendon look winnable. Of all teams in finals contention Richmond look to have the best run. Does this mean you can bank these wins? Not yet.
A Finals Prediction
Geelong look preened and ready for finals. Ten wins in a row confirms their finals credentials. With St. Kilda, Gold Coast and West Coast to play, only Richmond have a better run to the finals. Only total disaster can supplant them from the top spot. Number one and they should stay that way.
Melbourne appear to have returned to the pressure game that made them Premiers last year. All the right gears look to be finally in place. Melbourne will still be the hunted and not the hunter. With Collingwood, Carlton and Brisbane (in Brisbane) each game should be excellent preparation for finals.
Where do all the teams fall? Taking into account the games to be played and possible wins the ladder could go the following way.
1.Geelong 72
2.Melbourne 68
3.Sydney 64
4.Brisbane 60
5.Collingwood 60
6.Fremantle 58
7.Carlton 56
8.Richmond 54
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9.Western Bulldogs 48
10. St. Kilda 44
11.Gold Coast 44
Not that much change. This is only a guess, a prediction as I see it. It has its biases. Sport is well known for being unpredictable. Could Gold Coast make the finals? Could Collingwood finish on top of the ladder? It seems impossible. Lets find out.